Politics
Political opinion polls
Voting intention
William Bowe on his Poll Bludger site draws attention to the Australian Electoral Commission’s final count for the Fadden by-election, confirming that it’s a hard-right electorate.
The two-party outcome, split 63.35:36.65 for the Coalition, was a swing of 2.72 percent to the Coalition. Labor lost a little support on primary vote, while the Greens lost almost 5 percent, and the Coalition picked up about 4 percent. In effect there was a net swing from Greens to the Coalition, and there was no improved support for independents in spite of a large field of independents and microparties. One Nation held on to its 9 percent support, with 77 percent of its preferences making their way to the Coalition – about the same as the flow of Green preferences to Labor. The Legalise Cannabis Party was the only other group to make it to four digits (6424 votes, or 7 percent): 58 percent of their preferences flowed to Labor, ruling out the suggestion that it’s a far-right libertarian outfit.
The Poll Bludger also reports on three voting intention polls, all showing that Labor maintains around a 10 percent TPP lead on the Coalition. The polls on which these are based confirm that Labor’s primary vote has maintained the boost it enjoyed following last year’s election. Apart from the Redbridge poll, the Coalition’s vote, which dipped after the election, now seems to be recovering towards its election result (35.7) percent. These poll results are shown in the diagram below.
The polling numbers for Fadden and the nation do not presage a Coalition victory in the next election. More seriously, however, it seems that exposure of the Coalition’s corruption and incompetence over the last year, most notably the Robodebt commission, has not cost the party any further loss of support. Such assurance, even if it is around an election-losing vote, lessens the incentive for the Coalition to reform or reconstitute itself, to back off its hysterical scare campaigns, and to develop credible policies.
Confirmation of the TPP results is given in a novel Essential poll question, where respondents were given the binary choice:
I’m glad that Anthony Albanese’s Labor government won the last federal election;
or
It would have been better if Scott Morrison’s Liberal government had been re-elected.
Labor wins 57:43 on this test – and more strongly among young voters. Even 23 percent of people who presently identify themselves as Coalition voters are pleased to see Morrison out of office, suggesting that Dutton and his supporters in the parliamentary party have succeeded in making him the scapegoat for the party’s poor performance.
Popularity
The Essential poll updates the trends in Albanese’s and Dutton’s favourability ratings. Although Albanese is still well ahead of Dutton (37 percent to 27 percent), his support has been falling over most of this year, and his disapproval rating is rising, but there is no sign that voters are warming to Dutton.
Boat people
The ABC and other news media report on how Lee Dae-seon, an activist rights campaigner from the Dialogue China NGO, who has made himself unpopular with the Chinese government, has made an escape from Shandong Province to South Korea on a jet ski. He will most probably apply for asylum in South Korea or another country.
The press reports describe his elaborate arrangements to provide himself enough fuel for the journey. He is fortunate that he didn’t have enough fuel to reach Australian territory, but alerted to his ingenuity, it is probable that deep within the Department of Home Affairs a task force has been appointed with the task of determining if a jet ski is a “boat”.