Politics
New South Wales election – polls moving in government’s direction but not enough
William Bowe has pulled together the three polls taken in February, and has added one more, on the New South Wales election to be held on March 25. They show Labor’s primary vote slipping and the Coalition’s improving, but Labor still has a TPP lead between 52:48 and 53:47.
The graph below shows the primary vote as estimated in all four polls, compared with the outcome of the 2019 election. With 42 percent of the vote in 2019, the Coalition was only just able to form a majority, which it soon lost. With all three polls now showing lower support for the Coalition, it is hard to imagine how they can hope to form a majority government. Nor is Labor in a strong position, with no indication that it has picked up support since 2019.
The most revealing feature of the Newspoll and the Freshwater Strategy poll is that they still show the same three parties – Labor, Coalition and the Greens – holding around 85 percent of the vote between them, as they did in 2019. In Victoria’s election in November there was a 6 percent swing away from the three established parties. These two polls, however, show no apparent surge to independents or minor parties, but that could still happen because polls have a bias against detecting support for independents and very small parties. The Roy Morgan and Resolve Strategic polls, by contrast, show the major parties with only 77 and 81 percent support respectively.
Other polling and political developments
Adrian Beaumont, writing in The Conversation, has a more comprehensive article on New South Wales polling, covering leaders’ ratings. Perrottet scores well personally on approval and as preferred premier. Does the problem for the Perrottet government lie with the stench of its coalition partner, the National Party?
He also reports on national polling on federal voting intention (Labor still way ahead on TPP distribution), the Voice (holding at 58 percent support), and Stage 3 tax cuts (support still strong, but falling).
The Morgan poll from which he quotes has Labor’s national support at 37.0 percent (32.6 percent at last year’s election) and the Coalition’s at 34.5 percent (35.7 percent at the election).
The Coalition, or more specifically the Liberal Party, is racked by internal division. Age political reporter Sumeyya Ilanbey, describes how hard-right conservatives are attempting to overthrow moderate members of the party’s Victorian administrative committee. Not a wonderful situation in the run-up to a by-election. And in Tasmania, conservatives are ganging up against Bridget Archer, one of the few Liberals to have enjoyed a TPP swing. She has upset conservatives for taking economically responsible attitudes to climate change and superannuation.