Australian politics
Polls
True issues survey – cost of living is at the top of our minds
The JWS True Issues Survey for August finds that when Australians are asked to nominate the “most important issues the government should focus on”, “Cost of living” comes out in top place (38 percent of respondents). This time last year it hardly rated as an issue. By contrast, a year ago while Australians were grappling with the Delta variant of Covid-19, “Hospitals, health care and ageing” were our top concern by an overwhelming margin. It is now our #2 concern.
In spite of the amount of publicity around Reserve Bank decisions, “Economy and finances” and “Housing and interest rates” are mentioned by only 20 percent and 18 percent of respondents respectively. This confirms the RBA view that the burden of high interest rates falls disproportionately on highly-indebted households, while most Australians enjoy adequate financial liquidity. Strangely, in view of high electricity, gasoline and gas prices, “Energy” gets mentioned by only 7 percent of respondents.
Victoria’s election – Teal or Red?
William Bowe, on his Poll Bludger site, reports on polls relating to the Victorian election in November. If the polls are right, the Coalition primary vote will be an improvement on its 2018 election – a rare outcome for the Coalition in view of its track record of its vote having gone backwards in 19 of the last 20 state and federal elections. But that’s coming off a miserable 35 percent base in 2018, and it would take a Morrison-scale miracle to get the Coalition over the line.
In the same article Bowe reports on some of the independents’ aspirations. The ABC has a 12-minute interview with pollster Kos Samaras on the prospects for independents in the election: they will probably take seats off both Labor and the Coalition. He also reports that as baby boomers (aged 58 to 77) give way to millennials (26 to 41), voting patterns are changing. Millennials are likely to support Labor over the Coalition, and are particularly open to supporting independents.
May election – Labor’s hold on inner Sydney electorates
Bowe has a map of booth-by-booth outcomes in May’s election for Sydney’s 15 “inner metropolitan” seats as classified by the Electoral Commission. The most striking, but perhaps unsurprising revelation, is the almost solid support for Labor in the region between Sydney Harbour/Parramatta River and Botany Bay/Georges River.
More surprising is the two-party swing to Labor in the prosperous suburbs north of Sydney Harbour/Parramatta River. The most solidly Coalition seat seems to be Cook, Morrison’s seat, where the Liberals won in every polling place. It is hard to see Labor taking this seat whenever Morrison resigns from Parliament – assuming he does so well before the 2025 election in order to make way for a new candidate. And in view of its profile – prosperous, on Sydney’s southern fringe 20 km from the CBD (even though the AEC classifies it as “inner”) – it may be a tough one for an independent.