The long election campaign
Morgan – Coalition to face a wipeout
The most recent Morgan poll, probably the last national poll for the year, has a two-party lead for Labor of 55.5:44.5 – a thumping 11.0 percent lead. See William Bowe’s Poll Bludger, for a summary and an onward link.
For many reasons, particularly in an era when there is a strong move by independents, two-party estimates are subject to significant error. It’s safer to stick to primary voting intention. The poll indicates Labor primary support at 36.0 percent (33.3 percent in the 2019 election), the Coalition at 34.5 percent (41.4 percent in 2019), Greens 12.5 percent (10.4 percent in 2019), and One Nation 3.5 percent (3.1 percent 2019).
Apart from a significant rise in the Green vote, this is more in line with other polls, which show a significant loss in support for the Coalition only partially picked up by Labor. The Morgan poll was conducted between November 27 and December 4, which means it is the only poll to have picked up any response to Morrison’s parliamentary conflicts. It may also have picked up Labor’s modest climate change proposals: that could lie behind strong Green support revealed in the poll.
One disaggregation it reports is that among women Labor enjoys a 60.5:39.5 percent lead. That suggests that among men the two-party position is around 50:50.
Early December was probably a low point for Morrison. But this, and other polls showing a collapse in support for the Coalition, will be leaving many Coalition backbenchers feeling rather anxious at the end of the year.
Hypocrisy rampant – the Coalition’s attack on independents (with a little help from Labor)
There is a story, (possibly apocryphal) from Nero’s Rome:
In a form of mass entertainment realism still not surpassed in 2000 years, the occasional Christian was thrown to the lions in the Coliseum.
In his wisdom and mercy Nero decreed that any Christian who survived three such events would be freed and given Roman citizenship.
Only one Christian, a fit and agile young man, had survived twice.
The third time, in order to give the lions a chance, Nero’s slaves ensured he was bound and buried up to his neck in the middle of the Coliseum.
Anticipating Nero’s trickery, on the morning of the event he gorged himself on garlic, herrings and aged French cheese.
When the first lion bounded up to him he blew hard in its face, and the lion, judging that smell was a reliable guide to flavour, decided to find someone more palatable.
As the lion passed over him the Christian threw back his head and with all his might bit the lion on its testicles.
The lion leapt away, yelping in pain.
High up in the stand, where the corporations had their boxes close to Nero’s, a cry came: “Fight clean you dirty Christian bastard.”
So it is with the Coalition’s attack on the Climate 200 fund and the “Voices” movements, described by Paul Karp in The Guardian: Morrison government urges MPs to dob in climate and ‘Voices for’ groups under new donor rules. Anything to stop independents and minor parties upsetting the rotten two-party winner-take-all “Westminster” system that’s strangling any opportunity for democratic renewal and is taking us down a path of poverty and division. (We should also remember that Labor supported the legislation enabling this assault on independents.)