Polls and elections
Essential poll
The October 12 Essential poll surveys respondents on politicians and governments’ performance, attitudes to vaccination, support for a federal ICAC , trust in institutions, and action on climate change.
On preferred prime minister, Albanese is still behind by a net 16 percentage points, but the gap is closing: a year ago it was 29 points.
There isn’t much movement in people’s approval of the Commonwealth’s approach to Covid-19. Support for state governments’ handling of Covid-19 is strongest in Western Australia (80 percent), high in South Australia and Queensland, and lowest in Victoria (46 percent).
There is no significant change in vaccine hesitancy. Nationally only 7 percent say they will never get vaccinated, but when disaggregated by voting intention 17% of “other” voters (other than Labor, Coalition, Greens) say they will never get vaccinated.
Gladys Berejiklian ’s resignation has not dented support for a federal ICAC, which stands at 78 percent. Support is a little stronger among Labor supporters than among Coalition supporters. Just on half of those surveyed, including respondents from New South Wales, claim to be more supportive of a federal ICAC following Berejiklian’s resignation. Only 11 percent of respondents oppose a federal ICAC.
Trust in public institutions reveals the usual ranking: institutions with some distance from government (the CSIRO, health authorities, law-enforcement bodies) enjoy more trust than state and federal governments.
On climate change there is the predictable partisan difference on people’s perception of the need for action. Notably 30 percent of respondents – including 39 percent of Coalition supporters – believe “we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate” rather than a phenomenon caused by human activity.
Asked whether Australia is doing enough to address climate change, and about emission targets for 2030, there are very significant partisan differences: Labor and Green supporters express similar preferences, but Coalition voters and older people are much less enthusiastic about strong action. There is generally strong support for our government to fall in line with other governments in the upcoming Glasgow COP26 summit, however.
Czech Republic – the unbearable lightness of a Czech election
The Czech Republic went to the polls on October 8 and 9. In terms of swings, the only significant movement was a 5.4 per cent gain for the liberal conservative ODS Party, who won 27.4 percent of the vote. Other parties experienced small swings, but some of them were consequential: small swings against the Communists and the Social Democrats brought them down below the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary representation. There was a swing of 2.5 percent against Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s populist ANO Party, which won 27.1 percent of the vote. The election was complicated.
Independent media are interpreting it as a defeat for Babiš – in spite of strong support from the president he won’t be able to form a government – but commentators don’t know whether this was because of his Euroscepticism or the “Pandora Papers” revelation a few days before the election that he had $20 million in shell companies to purchase 16 properties in France. It would be a brave person who could conclude that the election reveals any left-right or liberal-conservative swing.