Elections and polls

Germany’s election

The federal election last Sunday saw the return of the Social Democrats both in terms of votes and seats in the Bundestag, at the cost of the Christian Democrats.

Germany has a two-part voting system: the first is a first-past-the-post vote for local representatives; the second is a proportional representation vote that determines the composition of the Bundestag. Smaller parties tend to do better in the second vote than the first vote, but parties must secure a five per cent threshold to gain representation.

Official figures from the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) show the votes and the swings from the 2017 election. The main swings were:

At first sight this may look like a swing to the left, but some of the loss by the Christian Democrats must be attributed to Angela Merkel’s stepping down. Also the German Greens would not be considered as “left” as their Australian counterparts. While the Greens’ highest votes are in Germany’s few big cities, they enjoy a reasonable base of support across the whole country. Support for Die Linke – the old Communist Party – fell from 9.2 per cent to 4.9 per cent, but it held up comparatively well in parts of the old East Germany. In spite of its name, it would be hard to classify it as “left”.

Nationally support for far-right Alternativ für Deutschland fell from 12.6 per cent to 10.3 per cent, but its vote held up at around 20 per cent in the northern parts of the old East Germany. Mark Fitzpatrick of Flinders University, in a short and informative Conversation article on the politics behind the election, explains that the AFD and their voters “are not, as some imagine, pensioners who remember the certainties of the old Communist regime fondly. Rather, they are young and middle-aged East Germans who have voted against migration, anti-COVID measures and ‘the system’”. Familiar.

The Social Democrats and Greens between them hold 326 seats in the 735-seat Bundestag. At this stage it appears that they may form a government with help from the free-market and comparatively libertarian Free Democrats, who hold 92 seats and voter support of 11.5 per cent. This could be a difficult union, given the Greens’ support for higher taxes and higher minimum wages, and the Free Democrats’ support for lower taxes. There is likely to be less disagreement on the need for stronger action on climate change and the need to strengthen the country’s digital economy, however.

Australians, conditioned by the Liberal Party’s standing agreement to form a coalition with the National Party, and their preference deals with parties on the far right, might wonder why the Christian Democrats and Free Democrats haven’t considered a deal with Alternativ für Deutschland to scrape together enough seats – at least to form a solid opposition. But Germany’s conservatives have a better understanding of history and of the consequences of such Faustian bargains than our win-at-all-cost conservatives.

Klaus Neumann, of the Hamburg Foundation for the Advancement of Research and Culture, and honorary professor at Deakin University, has a detailed description of the election – Germany’s arithmetic – in Inside Story. He explains the missteps by party leaders that set back their campaigns and shifted voters’ intentions: the Social Democrats’ Olaf Scholz seems to have been the only leader of a large party relatively unscathed by allegations of misbehaviour. He explains some of the country’s regional differences which are far more complex than the east-west divide. He also explains the intricacies of Germany’s election system. It’s a thriving democracy that saw 77 per cent of the electorate turn out to vote, but excluded from the electoral roll are 8 million adult residents barred from voting by laws that make it difficult even for second-generation migrants to take out citizenship.

Missing Merkel

What has been so different about Angela Merkel? Some commentators focus on her gender – Mutti Merkel has been one of her nicknames. Others point to her growing up in the old East Germany: she was never part of the Christian Democrat establishment. And some mention the influence of her father, a Lutheran clergyman.

Emma Johnston of UNSW and Kylie Walker of ANU, writing in The Conversation, remind us of another quality rarely found in politics: she was a scientist, holding a doctorate in quantum chemistry – Angela Merkel’s career shows why we need more scientists in politics. She “retained many traits that are common among scientists throughout her long political career. She is patient and discerning. She has vision and strategy, and understands the value of planning for the long term. She is rational and empirical. And she builds collaboration and cooperation”.

Perhaps, as well as gender quotas, our parties could have quotas limiting the number of candidates with degrees in politics, economics and marketing.

Essential – vaccines and nukes

This fortnight’s Essential Report has a set of questions on vaccination, and another set related to the AUKUS deal.

Over the last two months people have become a little more positive towards the Commonwealth’s response to Covid-19: 45 per cent give it a “good” rating, 30 per cent a “poor” rating. Apart from Victoria (44 per cent “good”) state governments score better than the Commonwealth: even New South Wales now scores 53 per cent “good”.

The poll asks if people have been vaccinated. The percentage of people responding that they have had at least one dose is close to official records, except for people from Western Australia, 70 per cent of whom respond that they have had at least one dose, compared to 62 per cent according to official figures.

Only 7 per cent of people say “I’d never get vaccinated”. Responses to this question by voting intention show considerable variation: 10 per cent of Greens voters and 23 per cent of “other” voters say they would never get vaccinated. Overall it’s not a large number, but the media seem to be giving undue attention to anti-vaxxers – both the beautiful people leading alternative lifestyles and the ugly people smashing windows and pissing on the Shrine of Remembrance.

There is a set of questions on which party – Liberal or Labor – is more able to handle certain issues. The Liberals score better than Labor on “national security” and “management of the economy”, while Labor does well on “fair wages and workplace conditions”, “addressing climate change”, and “housing affordability”, suggesting that, in people’s minds, these are not seen as economic issues. It’s as if “the economy” is something unrelated to people’s welfare, but which must somehow be appeased with austerity and hardship for some while heaping benefits on the already well-off. This perception of “the economy” as something separate from most people’s welfare presents a challenge for Labor to get its message across, stressing that economics is about the welfare of all.

There is another set of questions on nuclear issues, starting with our attitudes to nuclear power for electricity generation, for which there is weak net support (50 per cent support, 32 per cent oppose), and a strong division on partisan lines, Coalition voters being more in support of nuclear power than Labor. One notable figure is that 38 per cent of Greens voters support nuclear power – most probably those whose concerns about climate change outweigh their concerns about nuclear safety and waste. When it comes to a question about which power sources should receive government support, renewable energy dominates, with nuclear, coal and gas running a long way behind in second, third and fourth place.

Finally there are questions on AUKUS. Because the questions are in such general terms it is hard to infer much from the responses. There is some predictable partisan differentiation, and older people seem to be much more in support of AUKUS than younger people. Two-thirds of respondents agree that “Australia’s relationship with China is a complex relationship to be managed”.

Voting intetions – Labor holds its lead

Newspoll – state breakdowns

William Bowe’s Poll Bludger reports on Newspoll’s quarterly breakdown of state-by-state federal voting intention. The swing away from the Coalition since the 2019 election is between two and five per cent in most states, except in Western Australia where it is closer to ten per cent. In spite of these swings, not many Coalition seats are at risk, such is the outcome of the 2019 election which resulted in few Coalition cliffhangers. One finding in these disaggregations is that the Coalition’s lead among older Australians – 60 and over – seems to be slipping.

Morgan – Labor and Coalition level-pegging on primary vote

Poll Bludger also reports on a Morgan Poll, showing the Coalition and Labor both on primary support of 36 per cent. (In the 2019 election the primary vote split 41.4 per cent to the Coalition, 33.3 per cent to labor). It also has estimates of parties’ support sate by-state, which are broadly in line with the Newspoll state swings. Morgan calculates the a 54:46 two -party lead for Labor.